Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) is holding the lead in New Hampshire less than a month ahead of the state’s February 11 primary, according to a 7 News/Emerson College Poll released Thursday.
The New Hampshire Emerson College poll was conducted January 13-16, 2020, among 657 registered voters. It showed Sanders taking the lead in the Granite State with 23 percent support, a full five points ahead of Pete Buttigieg (D), who followed with 18 percent. The margin of error of +/- 3.8 percentage points puts Sanders’ lead outside of a statistical tie with the former mayor.
Former Vice President Joe Biden (D) and Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) tied for third with 14 percent support each. Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN), Andrew Yang (D), Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI), and Tom Steyer (D) followed with ten percent, six percent, five percent, and four percent, respectively. No other candidate earned above one percent support:
— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) January 17, 2020
Despite Sanders’ lead, Spencer Kimball, Director of Emerson College Polling, said less than half of Sanders’ supporters, 49 percent, believe he will be the Democrat nominee.
“On the flip side, Joe Biden supporters are confident, with 87% thinking he will be the nominee,” Kimball added.
More via Emerson:
When voters were asked if it was more important to choose a candidate who has the best chance of beating Donald Trump, or a candidate who comes closest to their own views, 51% responded that it was more important to choose a candidate with similar views, while 49% responded that it was more important to choose someone who has the best chance of beating Trump. 80% of Biden supporters prefer a candidate who has the best chance to beat Trump, as compared to 68% of Klobuchar supporters, 46% of Buttigieg supporters, 45% of Warren supporters, and 42% of Sanders supporters.
Kimball added that there was “not much movement among the top four candidates in the last month” but noted Klobuchar’s status as a viable competitor.
Emerson’s polling results from November told a similar story in regards to the top tier, with Sanders and Buttigieg leading and Biden and Warren tying for third place. However, Klobuchar, as Kimball indicated, only polled with two percent support, demonstrating an eight-point leap in the latest results:
New Hampshire @EmersonPolling (11/22-26):
— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) November 27, 2019
One more Democrat debate, taking place at St. Anselm College in Manchester, New Hampshire, on Feb. 7, will precede the state’s February 11 primary.