Nolte: Bernie Sanders Jumps to National Lead over Joe Biden

Nolte: Bernie Sanders Jumps to National Lead over Joe Biden

Nolte: Bernie Sanders Jumps to National Lead over Joe Biden

National polling from far-left CNN shows Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) at the head of the pack with 27 percent support, compared to just 24 percent for former Vice President Joe Biden.

This is the first time Bernie has ever led a national poll.

In third place is Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) with 14 percent. Mayor Pete Buttigieg is in fourth with 11 percent.

Former New York Mayor Mike Bloomberg, Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN), Andrew Yang and Tom Steyer are all way behind at five, four, four, and two percent, respectively.

The overall polling released Wednesday shows this CNN poll, at least for right now, is an outlier. Five out of six of the most recent polls show Biden in the lead. His national lead sits at an average of six points on the Real Clear Politics (RCP) poll of polls.

In fact, other than a couple of ties, since October of last year, this CNN poll is the first time any poll has showed anyone but Biden in the lead.

But even in the RCP poll of polls, Sanders is showing real momentum, which is extraordinary when you remember he’s a 185-year-old Marxist who just had a heart attack.

Back in December, over a RCP, Bernie’s national average was just 15.6 percent. He’s now at 22 percent, and closing on Burisma Joe Biden, who is at 28 percent.

Worth noting in the CNN poll, though, which surveyed 500 registered Democrats and Democrat-leaning Independents between January 16-19, is the trend.

Going back to August of last year, Bernie has enjoyed a slow and steady climb from 15 percent  support to 27 percent today.

Slow Joe Biden peaked with 34 percent support in October, but a slow leak has dropped his support to just 24 percent.

So what, if anything, does any of this mean?

Well, first off, it tells me, Democrat primary voters have not yet found a consensus choice, which means they are not very happy with anyone. In a primary with this many competitors, the frontrunner is not really safe until he hits 35 to 40 percent support. Biden hasn’t seen those kind of numbers in months. The volatility of the race, the changing fortunes, at least among those polling below Biden, is indicative of a race where anything can still happen.

We are just under two weeks from the first voting taking place in the Iowa Caucus, and the polling is still all over the place.

Speaking of Iowa, look at this. We have four candidates all bunched up together. No one knows what will happen on February 3.

Same thing in New Hampshire, which votes on Feb 11 — a four-way traffic jam.

If anything, this is reminiscent of the Republican presidential primary in 2012. You know, another crowded field up against an incumbent president and no consensus candidate.

In some ways, this is good for Democrats. Without a real frontrunner, with so many possible outcomes, the Trump campaign can’t focus their energies on one target.

On the flip-side, if this primary extends and extends and extends, it is going to get increasingly bitter, which means a lot of hurt feelings, which means some Democrats might sit out the general election — especially the Bernie Bros, who have every right to be bitter at a rigged primary system.

Anyone who tells you they know what’s going to happen once the voting begins, is lying. Volatile polls means a volatile electorate. The Democrat nomination is still up for grabs. We might not even know after Iowa and New Hampshire.

But that’s the beauty of elections. The media have no say. The “experts” have no say. The pundits have no say. The pollsters have no say. It is all out of their hands and in the hands of real people. 

Follow John Nolte on Twitter @NolteNC. Follow his Facebook Page here.

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